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Planting delays continue

May 13, 2019
By Kristi Guse - Columnist , Farm News

Planting progress released Monday afternoon was as expected for corn at 15 percent complete, up 9 percent for the week, but still 12 percent behind the 5-year average.

Soybean planting was at 3 percent, just behind the 5-year average of 6 percent.

Spring wheat seeding made 8 percent progress coming in at 13 percent complete, but behind the 5-year average of 33 percent.

Some analogies are being made, as corn planting progress looks to be stalled out by the 6-10 day forecasts for a good share of the Corn Belt. Recent data from Advance Trading Inc., stated that if the eight largest corn producing states haven't reached 70 percent planted by mid-May the likelihood of the USDA decreasing yield in the June report increases.

Since 1986, there has been seven years where those states hadn't reached 70 percent completed by mid-May, with six of those years the corn yield came in below trend.

The University of Illinois has data showing corn planted after May 10th tends to have a 5 percent yield reduction and after May 20th goes up to 9 percent.

Not only could we see reduced corn yields in upcoming reports, but also acre adjustments as well. Some analysts have published reductions of 2 million corn acres already. However, the trade knows how fast the American farmer can plant corn when the weather is favorable. Historical numbers show it's possible to see 20-30 percent completed in a week, but the forecast in front of us now makes that look unlikely.

With African swine fever being a concern worldwide, representatives from 15 countries have gathered in Canada this week for a global forum concerning the disease. USDA Under Secretary Greg Ibach is attending the forum and stated a reliable diagnostic test that can be used on farms is closer to being a possibility than a vaccine at the moment. He also stated that a lot of effort is being put towards developing a vaccine; "that maybe conferences like this one could help in sharing research information that might help us move the development of a vaccine forward." Pork industry officials say a vaccine for ASF could be at least 10 years away.

New crop soybean sales are significantly lagging the pace seen in recent years. Cumulative new crop sales stand at just shy of 30 million bushels. This is the slowest pace seen since 2003 and 130 million bushels below last year's pace. China and the unknown category account for 17 million bushels of the total. Last year at this time the two accounted for 143 million bushels.

A trade deal with Japan could possibly be finalized within the month, according to indications from U.S. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue. The trade negotiation wouldn't be comprehensive but would have an agreement on the agricultural issues that both countries are concerned about. According to reports, Perdue says an agreement between the two countries could happen by the time President Trump travels to Japan in late May.

For more information, you may contact Kristi Guse at (712)-260-6486, or e-mail at kguse@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Kristi Guse. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

 
 

 

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